May 26, 2026 | Jim Rickards
It’s too early to make hard-and-fast predictions about the outcome of the midterm congressional elections in November. I’ll do that beginning around August and fine-tune the forecast as we move closer to Election Day on Nov. 3.
Our election forecasting record is among the best in the business, including Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 (against polls showing a 95% chance of a Hillary Clinton victory), Brexit (we said the U.K. would leave the EU when the polls showed a 74% chance of Remain) and the 2024 presidential election (when we projected 312 electoral votes for Trump).
But that success depends on a lot of inputs and constant updating, and it’s far too early to run those models today because too much will change between now and November.
But it’s not too early to describe some of the key factors.
The biggest factors in the Democrats’ favor are history (the party in the White House usually loses seats in its first midterm after the presidential election), Trump’s low favorability ratings and the affordability issue, beginning with sharply higher prices for gas at the pump.
The biggest factors in the Republicans’ favor are money (ActBlue and the Southern Poverty Law Center are under investigation), reapportionment maps (amplified by the Callais decision involving the use of race in congressional redistricting), crazy Democratic candidates (their Senate candidate in Maine has faced controversy over a Nazi tattoo) and a solid base (MAGA is with Trump all the way).
There’s one more factor in the Republicans’ favor.
Every election cycle seems to have a political genius who reads the electorate exactly right. In the 1980s, it was Lee Atwater, who helped Reagan and George H. W. Bush win three consecutive presidential elections. He died at the young age of 40 in 1991, and Republicans then lost the next two elections in 1992 and 1996.
In the 1990s, it was James Carville, who engineered Bill Clinton’s victories in 1992 and 1996. In the 2000s, it was David Axelrod, who led Obama to victory in 2008 and 2012. Steve Bannon was the brains behind Trump’s amazing 2016 win.
Today, the young mastermind is James Blair, who reportedly resigned as White House Deputy Chief of Staff to help ensure Republicans hold the House and Senate in the midterms.
Let’s wish him well.
Democrat victories in either house of Congress would be a disaster for the country.
All the best,
Jim Rickards
Editor, Strategic Intelligence